斯里兰卡正在发生的经济危机

当前发生的各种重大国际事件吸引了大部分注意力, 而斯里兰卡的经济危机就这样被忽略了. 最近的动荡给它的历史增加了痛苦的一页. 这里我们将探讨斯里兰卡经济危机的根源和原因.

I received an email the other day asking me to do a video on the economic crisis happening right now in Sri Lanka. And shamefully, the first thing I thought was, “Wait. There’s a crisis?” Current events have sucked the air out of other things going on around the world. As it turns out, this is one of them. Sri Lanka’s economic development has been closely studied for decades. These recent events are adding a bitter new page to its history. In this video, we are going to look at the roots and causes of the ongoing economic crisis in Sri Lanka.

开端 Beginnings

斯里兰卡曾经被称为锡兰, 在长达150多年的时间里一直是英国的殖民地. 当这个国家于1948年独立时, 具有许多得天独厚的资源. 岛上有具有战略意义的优良港口, 基础设施没有遭受二战破坏. 教育和人口健康方面在全球的排名也很高. 在政治治理方面, 斯里兰卡是一个拥有普选权的民主国家, 一个曾经被其它国家作为榜样的国家. 这个前英国殖民地还继承了高效的出口经济. 斯里兰卡种植园主要生产茶叶, 橡胶和椰子. 1950年, 斯里兰卡的国民生产总值(按购买力平价调整后)比印度, 巴基斯坦, 泰国更高, 甚至比韩国都要高. 1960年的人均总收入为141美元, 远远高于泰国的96美元, 印度尼西亚的50美元, 与韩国的156美元持平.

20世纪50年代末, 斯里兰卡政府的一名顾问写道: 这个国家最大的挑战是在不断增长的人口中, 保持目前的高生活水平.

当时的发展计划, 侧重于维持殖民时代的成功并扩大农产品出口. 通过基础设施建设, 改善人口较少的干旱地区的生活条件. 但是这蓬勃向上的景象隐藏了脆弱和紧张的政治气息, 一些灾难性的政策和无法控制的事件将点燃其中的矛盾, 结束这些美好.

Sri Lanka - once known as Ceylon - had been a British colony for over 150 years. When the country received its independence in 1948, it had a lot going for it. The island held a strategic trading port location and it had suffered no infrastructure damage from World War II. In terms of education and population health, the country ranked very well too. And in terms of political governance, Sri Lanka was a democracy with universal suffrage - one that others pointed to as a model to follow. The former British colony also inherited a highly productive export economy. Sri Lankan plantations specialized in tea, rubber, and coconuts. In 1950, Sri Lanka's GNP - adjusted for purchasing power parity - was higher than that of India, Pakistan, Thailand, and even South Korea.

By 1960, the country’s per capita gross income of $141 was still much higher than Thailand's $96 and Indonesia's $50, and on par with South Korea's $156.

An advisor to the Sri Lankan government in the late 1950s wrote that the country's single greatest challenge would be maintaining its current high living standards across a growing population.

The Development plan at the time focused on furthering the country’s colonial-era successes and expanding its agricultural exports. Mostly through infrastructure to improve the growing conditions in Sri Lanka’s less populated dry zones.
But this rosy picture hid a dangerous mix of flammable ingredients. And a number of fateful policy choices and uncontrollable events would ignite them, ending this early optimism.

多民族 Multi-ethnics

斯里兰卡是一个多民族国家, 主要由两个民族组成: 僧伽罗人和泰米尔人. 僧伽罗人大多信奉佛教, 说僧伽罗语. 泰米尔人信奉印度教, 说泰米尔语. 这两个民族集中在这个国家的不同地区. 僧伽罗人约占人口75%, 生活在南部, 西部和中北部省份. 泰米尔人约占总人口的13%, 居住在北部和东部省份.

两个民族之间存在长期的矛盾并造成过灾难性的后果. 但是在20世纪初, 为脱离英国而独立的斗争使得两个民族暂时搁置了他们的分歧.

1948年制定的斯里兰卡宪法, 并未基于各民族间的共识, 而是基于僧伽罗精英阶层和殖民者管理层之间讨论的结果. 其结果是宪法并没有考虑到少数民族的意见, 泰米尔人的反对被视为"锡兰追求自由"的障碍. 立法委员会中的泰米尔人, 一半不同意宪法, 而另一半在第二年被排挤淘汰.

Sri Lanka has long been a multi-ethnic nation, dominated by two groups: the Sinhalese and the Tamils. The Sinhalese are majority Buddhist and speak Sinhala. The Tamils practice Hinduism and speak Tamil. These two ethnic groups are concentrated in separate parts of the nation. The Sinhalese - about 75% of the population - live in the south, west, and north-central provinces.The Tamils - constituting about 13% of the country's population - live in the northern and eastern provinces.Their relations have historically been tense, with devastating consequences. But at the start of the 20th century, the two groups largely set aside their differences to struggle for independence from the British. The reality of the Sri Lankan Constitution in 1948 was that it was not based on broad-based consensus between the various ethnicities. But rather, through discussions between the Sinhalese elites and the colonial administrators. As a result, the Sri Lankan constitution failed to take into account the concerns of the ethnic minorities. The Tamils' objections were treated as obstructions in "Ceylon's march to freedom". Half of the Tamil legislative council did not agree to the Constitution and the other half were voted out the next year.

左派人士 Leftists

斯里兰卡的第一次大选使统一国民党, 一个保守的政党获得权力.

他们面临着来自托洛茨基派左翼政党兰卡·萨马·萨马贾党的挑战. 人民之间的不平等和共产主义的兴起导致了左派意识形态. 为了遏制它们, 统一国民党实施了昂贵的食品补贴并通过立法剥夺泰米尔人的公民权. 这些食品补贴的资金, 主要来自于二战和朝鲜战争中暴涨的商品价格.

但是在1953年朝鲜战争结束后, 商品出口的红利消失了. 政府不得不提高大米价格和其他公共服务价格, 但是导致了人民的抗议, 这个令人痛苦的事件被称为Hartal, 最终导致首相辞职, 并导致统一国民党在三年后(1956年)的大选中落败.

The first Sri Lankan general election brought a conservative party - the UNP - to power. They faced challenges from a Trotskyite left-wing party, the Lanka Sama Samaja Party. Inequalities between the people and the rise of Communism led to the rising popularity of leftist ideologies. To contain them, the UNP implemented expensive food subsidies and passed legislation to disenfranchise Indian Tamils.

These popular food subsidies were paid for by booming commodity prices from World War II and the Korean War. But when the Korean War ended - I guess? - in 1953, commodity export revenues crashed and the government found itself having to raise rice prices and other public services.
The country's people rose up in protest - a traumatic event referred to as the Hartal. It forced the resignation of the Prime Minister and led to the UNP losing the general election three years later in 1956.

进口替代 Import Substitution

新政府的上台标志着民族关系的恶化. 民族和谐不再被优先考虑, 这产生了致命的问题. 各个政党放弃了他们的多民族立场, 僧伽罗语被确立为该国唯一的官方语言.

在经济方面, 政府实施了进口限制以保护其有限的外汇, 并决定建立垄断企业来满足国内的进口需求, 或者说, 进口替代. 这种政策在当时很流行, 例如东亚的各个经济体: 台湾地区, 韩国和日本, 都实施这种政策来帮助他们实现工业化. 20世纪70年代, 台湾地区和韩国启动了针对重工业和特种化学工业的进口替代政策, 这些政策为这两个经济体未来的成功奠定了基础, 但是这些政策必须在正确的背景下进行, 并作为更大的经济战略的一部分.

这种政策在南美的失败可以写满一本教科书. 台湾地区和韩国早在20世纪50年代就尝试过进口替代, 以纺织品和化肥为目标, 目的是节省外汇和保护国内产业. 在这两种情况下, 政策都未能实现目标: 外汇储备没有增加, 而官商的紧密结合导致了腐败. 因此, 如果缺乏必要的改革, 这些政策可能是有害的. 在斯里兰卡, 广泛的进口替代政策导致了效率低下, 因为政府试图自己做所有的事情. 他们的国内产品成本更高, 进口需求简单地从进口制成品转向进口原材料. 而原材料的价格一旦出现冲击, 就像石油危机期间一样, 就会被被转嫁给商品.

This new government signaled a turn for the worse in relations between the Sinhalese and Tamil communities. Ethnic harmony was not a priority - a fateful
decision. Various political parties abandoned their multi-ethnic stance. Sinhalese was instituted as the country's only official language.

On the economic front, the government imposed import restrictions on consumer goods to conserve its limited foreign currency. The state then decided to establish monopolies to fulfill those import demands domestically.

In other words, import substitution. There is a place for such policies. The East Asian giants - Taiwan, South Korea and Japan - implemented them to help industrialize their economy. For instance in the 1970s, Taiwan and South Korea launched import substitution policies targeting the heavy and specialty chemical industries. These laid the groundwork for the two economies' future domestic success. But they have to be done in the right context and as part of a larger economic strategy.

Whole textbooks have been written about such policies failing in South America. Taiwan and South Korea themselves tried import substitution twenty years earlier in the 1950s - targeting textiles and fertilizers - to conserve foreign exchange and protect domestic industry.

And in both cases, the policies failed to achieve the targeted growth rates. Foreign exchange reserves did not increase while close relations between businessmen and the government led to corruption. So without needed reforms, these policies can be damaging. In Sri Lanka, wide-ranging import substitution policies led to inefficiencies as the government tried to do everything themselves. Their domestic products cost more as import demand simply shifted from imported finished goods to imported raw materials. Price shocks in raw goods - like during the oil crises of the 1970s - thus filtered down to the finished goods.

封闭 Closed

到20世纪70年代, 斯里兰卡已经从一个相对开放的市场经济, 转变为世界上最封闭的非共产主义经济体之一.

经济增长大幅放缓, 国家发展落后于同样体量的其它国家. 到1977年, 斯里兰卡人均收入为200美元, 仅比17年前的1960年增长了60美元. 相比之下, 韩国人均收入为820美元, 马来西亚930美元, 泰国420美元, 印度尼西亚300美元.

斯里兰卡的种植园经济 —— 皇冠上的宝石 —— 陷入了混乱. 政府从1958年就开始威胁要将这些属于英国的资产国有化, 因此外资停止了对这些产业的投资, 这些产业开始衰退, 直到20世纪70年代进行真正的改革. 这部分经济持续衰落, 上层六个监管部门权力重叠, 还存在利益冲突. 政府成了这个国家最后的雇主: 从1961年起, 其GDP占比翻了一番并提供了全国超过50%的制造业工作岗位. 非常不幸的是, 因为高等教育考试政策和公共部门就业更倾向于僧伽罗精英, 这种不平等的情况在泰米尔青年中滋生了激进的意识形态.

By the 1970s, Sri Lanka had turned from a relatively open, market-based economy into one of the most closed non-Communist economies in the world. Economic growth dramatically slowed and the country's development fell behind that of its peers. By 1977, Sri Lankan per capita income was $200, up just $60 from 1960 - 17 years earlier. To compare, South Korea per capita income was $820, Malaysia $930, Thailand $420, and Indonesia $300.

Sri Lanka's plantation economy - its crown jewel - fell into disarray. The government had been threatening to nationalize these British-owned assets ever since 1958. So the foreign companies stopped investing in them, and they declined until the actual event occurred in the 1970s. The sector continued to decline, with operations overseen by six ministries with overlapping powers and conflicting concerns. The government became the country's employer of last resort - doubling its GDP share from 1961 and providing over 50% of the country's manufacturing jobs. This was unfortunate because higher education exam policies, public sector employment, and more favored the Sinhalese elites. This unequal scenario bred radical ideologies amongst the minority Tamil youth.

1977

缓慢的经济增长, 最终形成了改变这种福利国家模式的政治意愿. 1977年政府换届后, 试图改革开放. 新政权希望吸引外国投资者, 建立劳动密集型的出口发展型经济. 他们建立了自由贸易区, 保证资产不被无偿国有化, 使货币贬值, 并试图限制政府对更广泛经济的参与, 甚至减少了大米补贴 —— 长期以来, 这是斯里兰卡政坛的一个禁忌话题.

这曾经是一个绝佳的机会窗口. 斯里兰卡试图在中国印度和其它亚洲国家之前开放. 国际社会称赞了该国的方向转变, 并提供了前所未有的投资. 从1977年到1983年的短短五年间, 增长率从1977年前的每年 2.9% 飙升至 6%. 服装出口占经济总出口的份额从 2% 飙升至 16%. 游客比1978年的190万增加了一倍多达到1982年的400万英镑, 外汇几乎增加了两倍.

然而, 1977年的选举另一方面也驳回或者忽略了泰米尔人建立自治邦的呼吁. 政府没有正确地抚平自由化运动最初的负面影响. 通货膨胀对穷人的打击最大,包括取消粮食补贴和对某些农产品的贸易保护. 政府未能合理使用补贴和从国外投资及贷款中获得的资金. 资金被浪费到亏损的国有僵尸企业, 以维持它们的生存. 还有大型基础设施项目, 比如全新的首都和房屋建设项目其实不太有意义.

The sluggish economic growth finally built up the political will to change this welfare state-like status quo. 1977 saw a change in government and an attempt at reform and opening up. The new regime wanted to attract foreign investors and establish a labor-intensive export development economy. They established free trade zones, built in guarantees against nationalization of assets without compensation, devalued the currency, and attempted to limit state participation into the wider economy. The country even managed to reduce the rice subsidy - long a taboo subject in Sri Lankan politics.

This was a prime window of opportunity. Sri Lanka was trying to open up before China and many other Asian nations could. The international community praised the country's turn in direction and sent unprecedented amounts of foreign aid. Growth surged from 2.9% a year before 1977 to 6% in a brief five year period from 1977 to 1983. Garment exports surged from 2% to 16% of the economy’s total exports. Tourists more than doubled from 1.9 million in 1978 to 4 million in 1982, nearly tripling the amount of foreign exchange. However, that same 1977 election had also swept the Tamils into power on a platform calling for an independent Tamil state. And unfortunately, the government did not properly calibrate for the initial downside effects of their liberalization drive.

Its effects hit the poorest members of the community hardest with inflation, the removal of food subsidies and the lifting of trade protections on certain farmed goods. The government failed to properly use the money it got from subsidies and foreign aid. Money was wastefully funneled to loss-making state owned zombie companies to keep them alive. And Mega-infrastructure projects like a brand new capital and a house-building program did not quite make sense.

内战 Civil War

在不太稳定的环境下, 局势不断恶化并引发了战火.

1977年上台的政府愈加倾向于专制, 他们的高压政策和泰米尔人的抗议最终引发了暴力和报复的恶性循环, 并最终失去控制. 泰米尔的各个军事派别合并成一个名为LTTE的组织. 在1983年7月, 被称为黑色七月的事件中, LTTE对安全部队的袭击导致了全国大部分地区血腥的反泰米尔大屠杀, 国家陷入了混乱.

在散居世界各地的泰米尔人的捐助和支持下, LTTE在北部和东部省份建立了事实上的政权, 与政府持续的残酷的战斗中间有几次停火, 直到2009年才最终结束.

Things had already been precarious, but the worsening conditions set off a wildfire. The 1977 government had long shown authoritarian tendencies. Their heavy-handed tactics against Tamil protests set off a cycle of violence and retaliation that spiraled out of control. The Tamils' militant wings consolidated into an organization called the LTTE. Then in July 1983 - an event referred to as Black July - an LTTE attack on the security forces led to a brutal anti-Tamil pogrom across much of the country. Thus, the country fell into chaos. Supported by donations from the Tamil diaspora around the world,
the LTTE established a de facto state in the north and eastern provinces of the country. The brutal war saw several pauses, but would not finally end until 2009.

继续改革 Continued Reform

尽管有内战, 政府还是遵循其他亚洲经济体的剧本, 继续建设劳动密集型出口产业.

一些亏损的国有企业例如纺织厂, 被私有化或关闭了. 而一些自由贸易特权被扩大到自由贸易区之外. 有趣的是, 尽管产生了一个新的中间偏左的政府, 这一改革运动仍在继续. 1994年, 人民联盟取代统一国民党掌权. 人民联盟基于民粹主义发起运动并期望回到20世纪60年代的政策, 但对其进行了改良, 在执政后继续进行市场化改革.

制造业效果显著, 最终历史性地结束了对种植园农业经济的依赖. 服装, 橡胶制品和宝石成为主要的出口商品, 纺织和服装工业尤其强大, 具有全球竞争力, 该行业占据了大部分的出口, 吸引了知名品牌像 Abercrombie And Fitch, Banana Republic, Victoria's Secret等等.

斯里兰卡的服装公司开始具备先进的数字设计技术, 并成长为跨国公司, 他们在印度, 孟加拉和其他地区建立了中心. 因此, 尽管内战仍在持续, 经济仍以约5%的速度增长. 贫困人口数量从1995年的29%, 下降到2006年的15%. 然而战争还是造成了一些显著的问题. Motorola and Harris 曾经在80年代初到斯里兰卡考察, 希望建立一个装配工厂, 但由于政治不稳定而转移到了马来西亚. 看看今天以槟榔屿为中心, 蓬勃发展的电子组装工业, 对于斯里兰卡来说是一大损失.

Despite the civil war, the government continued their opening up with an eye towards a building a labor-intensive export industry - following the standard
playbook set down by other Asian economies. Some loss-making SOEs - like the textile mills - were privatized or closed down. Certain free trade privileges were expanded beyond the free trade zones.

Interestingly, this reform drive continued despite a new center-left government - the People's Alliance - taking power from the UNP in 1994. The People’s Alliance had campaigned on a strongly populist platform - threatening a return to the 1960s - but moderated their rule and continued the market-based reforms upon actually coming to power.

Manufacturing gained prominence, finally ending the country's historical dependence on its plantation agricultural center. Garments, rubber based products and gems are some of the top manufactured items exported. Sri Lanka's textile and garment industry is especially strong and globally competitive. Responsible for a majority of its exports, the industry has attracted name customers like Abercrombie and Fitch, Banana Republic, Victoria's Secret and more.
Sri Lankan apparel firms have since incorporated advanced digital design techniques and begun evolving into multinationals of their own - establishing centers in India, Bangladesh and beyond.

So despite an ongoing civil war, the economy grew at about 5% a year, and the number of people living in poverty declined from 29% in 1995 to 15% in 2006. There were some notable misses, however, due to the war. Motorola and Harris Corporation came to Sri Lanka in the early 1980s with the goal of building an assembly plant but departed to Malaysia due to political instability. Considering the bustling electronics assembly industry centered in Penang today, it was a big loss for Sri Lanka.

内战之后 Post Civil War

2007年, 现任总理马欣达·拉贾帕克萨领导的新政府上台, 并对LTTE赢得了关键的胜利. 政府从不同的国家, 特别是中国, 获得了大量支持, 最终通过大规模的军事行动最终打败了LTTE, 给这个饱受战争之苦的国家带来了和平. 这场决定性的胜利让总统有机会巩固他的权力. 他呼吁提前举行选举并修改了宪法, 大大扩大了他的行政权力. 首先面对高能源价格的动荡, 然后是全球金融危机的混乱, 政府开始强调它在"引导经济"中的领导角色, 应对全球化的负面影响. 2012年, 政府重新对茶叶和橡胶征收出口关税, 目标是再次鼓励国内加工- 进口替代.

In 2007, a new administration came to power led by the current Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. His government won critical defectors from the LTTE, gathered massive support from various countries - China in particular - and then led a massive military campaign that finally defeated the LTTE. He finally brought peace to a war-weary country. This decisive victory allowed the then-President the opportunity to cement his power. He called for snap elections and amended the constitution to greatly expand his executive powers. Facing first the turbulence of high energy prices and then the chaos of the Global inancial Crisis, the government began emphasizing its role of "guiding the economy" to deal with the negative effects of globalization. In 2012, the government re-imposed export tariffs on tea and rubber with the goal of once more encouraging domestic processing - import substitution.

美好的画面 Rosy Picture

这代表了对30年贸易自由化政策和开放的逆转. 考虑到拉贾帕克萨是人民联盟的关键成员, 这一转变令人惊讶.

尽管背离了经济自由化, 内战结束后的五年里斯里兰卡的经济发展势头良好. 国内生产总值每年增长7%. 股市繁荣, 人均收入从2004年的约1000美元增长到2013年的3200美元. 通货膨胀率从2008年22%的高位下降到2014年3.17%的低位. 失业率减半, 从2004年的8%降至2013年的4%. 贫困率从15%下降到6%. 从表面上看, 这些数字很不错, 它描绘了一个大步前进的国家在享受和平红利. 到2019年, 斯里兰卡已成为一个中等偏上收入的国家.

This has represented a reversal from 30 years of trade liberalization policy and opening up. The reversal is surprising considering Rajapaksa was a key member of the People’s Alliance. But despite this turn away from economic liberalization, the five years after the end of the Civil War saw the Sri Lankan economy growing very well. GDP grew 7% a year. The Sri Lankan stock market boomed. Per capita income grew from about a thousand dollars in 2004 to $3,200 in 2013. Inflation fell from a high of 22% in 2008 to a low of 3.17% in 2014. Unemployment halved from 8% in 2004 to 4% in 2013. And poverty rates declined from 15% to 6%. On the surface, these are great numbers. It portrays a country hitting its stride and enjoying its peace dividend. By 2019, Sri Lanka had become an upper middle income country.

疑虑 Concerns

然而, 在乐观的繁荣之下, 不一定是健康的增长.

首先, 这一增长背后的主要驱动力看起来不可持续. 从2004年到2013年, 70%的实际GDP增长不是来自劳动密集型制造业, 而是债务推动的主要公共部门建设和基础设施. 斯里兰卡经常出现财政赤字, 他们一再违反国际货币基金组织的减赤协议. 自2012年以来, 它们的年度债务GDP比例持续上升, 在2019年接近87%. 一部分是由于总统Gotabaya Rajapaksa带来的大规模减税.

这些大型基础项目包括科伦坡港口城项目, 一个在收回的地块上建成的"未来之城". 该项目是中国"一带一路"项目的一部分, 预算超过150亿美元. 债务本身没有任何问题, 特别是如果它被恰当地应用在生产性项目上. 但是这些项目的经济可行性值得怀疑. 例如, 科伦坡港口城位于斯里兰卡南部, 远离饱受战争蹂躏的北部东部省份, 接近现政府的政治权力中心. 但是这些项目存在腐败的问题, 数十亿美元的无投标合同与其他腐败严重的国家存在的问题相关联.

我确实想补充一点, 我并不真的认同中国"债务陷阱外交"的说法. 斯里兰卡总债务中大约10%是中国的. 绝大部分是国际债券市场的. 有一些关于99年租约之类的问题, 但我不会在这里讨论.

Yet underneath this rosy picture, there were signs that this boom wasn't necessarily healthy growth. First, the main drivers behind this growth did not look sustainable. 70% of the real GDP increase from 2004 to 2013 came not from labor-intensive manufacturing, but rather debt-fueled major public sector construction and infrastructure.

Sri Lanka regularly runs fiscal deficits - they've repeatedly breached deficit reduction agreements with the IMF. But their annual debt to GDP ratios have steadily increased since 2012. In 2019, it hit a ten year high of nearly 87% - fueled by a massive tax cut brought in by incoming president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Mahinda's younger brother.

These mega-projects include the massive Colombo Port City project - a "City of the Future" built on top of reclaimed land. The project is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and has a budget of over $15 billion. Now there’s nothing inherently wrong with debt, especially if it is appropriately used and spent on productive items. But the economic viability for these projects are questionable. Colombo Port City for instance is in the south - far away from Sri Lanka's war-torn northern and eastern provinces. It is close to the current government's political power base, however. Furthermore, these projects show signs of corruption with billions of dollars of no-bid contracts and rates of increase correlating with those found in other countries known for high corruption. However, I do want to add that I don't really buy the claims of Chinese "debt trap diplomacy". Just about 10% of Sri Lanka's total debt is owed to China. The vast majority is owed to the international bond markets. There are some concerns of 99-year leases and what not, but I won't address those here.

国内局势恶化 Domestic Deterioration

与此同时, 斯里兰卡传统的经济驱动遇冷. 制造业占GDP的比重在21世纪初达到了近20%的峰值, 在那之后的几年里, 这一数字持续下降到15%. 发展起来的制造业专注于服务国内部门, 例如食品, 饮料和烟草, 而不是像服装或电子产品这样的出口导向型行业. 相比之下, 越南的制造业起步要晚得多, 但是在发展中国家制造业的市场上的份额已经超过了斯里兰卡.

国内不满情绪在增长, 就业再次取决于是否站在政府一边, 许多斯里兰卡人去境外就业. 联合国估计, 近200万斯里兰卡人在国外工作, 每年有10-20万人离开. 所以你很难接受所谓的低失业率, 因为有如此多的人出境就业. 他们的汇款已经成为主要的经济驱动力, 占到这个国家经济的6-8%, 是仅次于出口的第二大外汇来源和关键支柱. 2019年, 移民工人汇款67亿美元
回到祖国, 弥补了超过85%的国家外汇缺口. 斯里兰卡经济从制造业转向基于债务的基础设施建设, 并依赖于劳务外汇的支持, 降低了抵御外部冲击的能力. 最终受到了疫情带来的冲击.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka's traditional economic drivers have been shunted aside. Manufacturing as a share of GDP reached a peak of nearly 20% in the early 2000s. But since then it has trended downwards to 15% in the years thereafter. And the manufacturing that has grown has been focused on servicing the domestic sector - food, beverage and tobacco - rather than export-oriented industries like garments or electronics. Compare this with Vietnam, which embarked upon its manufacturing push much later but has overtaken Sri Lanka in terms of market share amongst manufacturing in the developing countries.

Domestic dissatisfaction has increased. With employment once more dependent on how good your standing is with the government, many Sri Lankans have gone overseas to find work. The UN estimated that nearly 2 million Sri Lankans work abroad as migrant workers - with 100-200,000 more leaving each year.

It’s hard to take the low unemployment rate at face value when so many Sri Lankans are opting to head for the exits. Their remittances have become a major economic driver - representing 6-8% of the country’s economy. It's the second biggest earner of foreign income after exports and a critical crutch. In 2019, the $6.7 billion of remittances migrant workers sent back to the home country covered over 85% of the country's forex shortfalls.
The Sri Lankan economy’s shift from manufacturing to debt-funded infrastructure - with supports from remittances - reduced its resiliency against external shock. A shock that arrived with the pandemic.

疫情 COVID

2020年, 疫情的出现对斯里兰卡的经济造成巨大影响, 尤其是那些占据外汇主要部分的经济. 服装、茶叶和橡胶出口的目的地印度, 欧洲和美国, 随着这些地方被疫情封锁, 贸易迅速衰落. 斯里兰卡出口发展局曾预计到2020年出口创汇约185亿美元, 而最终出口总额为110亿美元. 国外汇款急剧下降. 韩国和卡塔尔等国家的疫情封锁意味着外出劳务人员的失业.

国际旅行的减少影响了出国务工, 进一步加剧了下行压力. 旅游人数的下降也损害了旅游业, 斯里兰卡的旅游业曾经经历了两位数的增长, 由于中国游客的增加, 旅游业在内战结束后蓬勃发展, 已成为该国仅次于出口和汇款的第三大外汇来源. 但是在2019年科伦坡的各种豪华酒店的一系列自杀式爆炸袭击之后, 旅游业一落千丈. 2018年有250万游客访问了斯里兰卡, 带来56亿美元的外汇收入. 2020年只有50万游客, 收入下降了80%.

随着第二和第三大外汇产业的瘫痪, 政府将化肥等商品的进口替代视为保护其剩余外汇的关键储备. 但这又进一步导致国内的物资短缺, 断电, 配给和通货膨胀.

2022年因大量印钞而产生通货膨胀, 自3月份以来, 斯里兰卡卢比兑美元汇率大幅下跌. 人们辛苦挣来的积蓄化为乌有, 重新陷入贫困. 人们不会就这么轻易认命.

In 2020, the pandemic arrived at Sri Lanka's shores with big impacts on the country's economic drivers - especially those generating the majority of its foreign exchange. Garment, tea and rubber exports to locked-down countries in India, Europe and the US quickly declined. The Sri Lankan Export Development Board had expected 2020 to deliver some $18.5 billion in export earnings. In the end, total exports were $11 billion. Foreign remittances drastically declined. Pandemic lock downs in countries like South Korea and Qatar mean that workers aren't working.

Reductions in international travel have also affected workers' ability to travel abroad - adding further downward pressure.

The decline in travel has also hurt tourism. Sri Lanka's tourism industry experienced double digit growth as Chinese tourism boomed after the civil war ended and had become the country's third biggest foreign exchange earner after exports and remittances.

But the pandemic - coming on after a series of suicide bombings in 2019 at various luxury hotels in Colombo - caused tourism to plummet. In 2018, 2.5 million tourists visited Sri Lanka, bringing in $5.6 billion in foreign exchange earnings. 2020, just half a million tourists came - and earnings declined by 80%.

With their second and third largest foreign currency generators now crippled, the government sees import substitution of items like fertilizer as key towards preserving their remaining foreign reserves. But that in turn leads to domestic shortages, power cuts, rationing and inflation. The Sri Lankan Rupee has seen a substantial drop in value against the US Dollar since March 2022 - worsened by extensive money printing. Without access to foreign currency or I guess crypto?, people's hard earned savings will vanish and return them to poverty. They’re not going to take that lying down.

尾声 Conclusion

在由来已久的经济问题下, 疫情可能只是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草. 这个国家在很长一段时间里一直徘徊在危机的边缘. 不少人将斯里兰卡的情况与黎巴嫩的金融危机联系起来, 我也同意这些想法. 就像在黎巴嫩一样, 摆脱危机的出路在于方向一致的政治领导. 而当前政府已经陷入僵局, 最近在议会中失去了占三分之二的多数, 也无法与反对派达成协议.

政府需要重组债务, 重新走上经济改革的道路, 改善与人民的关系, 而这一切, 都需要从最高层开始努力.

The economic hardship has been a long time coming. COVID might have contributed the final push, but the country has been on the brink for a very long time.
More than a few people have made the connection between what is going on right now in Sri Lanka with the ongoing financial crisis in the Lebanon. I echo those thoughts as well. And like in Lebanon, the way out of the crisis starts with coherent political leadership. The government is in a bit of a deadlock - having recently lost their two-thirds parliamentary majority - but unable to work with the opposition. The government needs to restructure its debt, bring itself back onto the pathway towards economic reform, and improve its relations with the people. Such an effort starts from the very top.